Pakistan’s recent strides with the west have raised eyebrows amongst many in India. The questions being asked are in the context of understanding why? Rather than why should it be what in return?
PUBLISHED IN THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS
October 16th 2022
Pakistan a country believed to be at the fag end of its influence pulled out some impressive rabbits out of its hat, unexpected by many in India and around the world. It all started with a meek appearance of its Prime Minister for the SCO summit followed by the visit to the USA along with his young Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto, for the UNGA and many other interactions on the sidelines.
Pakistan is currently dealing with devastating floods and its aftereffects leaving alone a crippling economy and political instability. The Floods combined with a terminal economic crisis where the single most important goal for the government is to ensure survival. The world expected that it’s all weather friend, China would come to its rescue but, it was the west that came through for Pakistan, curiouser and curiouser.
Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto, had a series of interactions with his western counterparts, where promises and tangible support was accumulated along with the most required, naming of “Kashmir”. The meeting with his German Counterpart came to be the highlight of Bhutto’s visit and interactions. This was celebrated as a great diplomatic victory in Pakistan. The word Kashmir and its mention from the west infused a certain energy within a solemn nation who now see themselves as being back in the game. Kashmir being critical towards Pakistan’s stated Security Interests.
The outgoing Chief of Army Staff General Bajwa further received an honour cordon by the US military and a personal reception by the US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin. The visit along with the grant of sale of US$450 million for the updating of its ageing F-16 fleet for the use in “counter-terror” operations. This sudden love showered by the west, especially the USA , raised eyebrows amongst many in India and was addressed by the government with the US. In this world of changing geopolitics one can now expect anything.
It is also believed that the west is showering this support for Pakistan to send a message to the Indian government about their dissatisfaction about the Indian stance on Russian Oil and the Ukraine war. A sudden increase of rhetoric by the usual suspects in the American media, firing up some “interesting” pieces was almost a confirmatory of this intention.
What are the reasons for this sudden “love” and change of heart? For this we must understand the matrix called Pakistan. As a country post its independence, Pakistan has always looked for a strong man for its leadership role. The dominance of the so-called “Marshal Race” who came from the military started in the early years of the country’s existence in the forms of Governor Generals and created the perceived supremacy of the armed forces.
This thought process is further imbibed into its veins, as the newly born Pakistan perceived external threats, whether real or not, from neighbouring countries such as India that played a major role in the formulation of a National Security approach. This is the beginning of an approach in which military interests were prioritised over nation building. The military consolidated power in the 1950s and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in the 1970s, as primary actors in the foreign and security policies as well as the domestic politics of the country.
The coups in the country’s history and a reminiscent perception of efficiency during these times further imbibes the army as a central institution within the country. As they say’ Countries have armies but the Pakistani Army has a country. This phenomenon was no less aided by the civilian leadership who looked for the Army to protect its fate as and when the political scenario would become unfavourable toward them. Incidentally, the list of civilian leadership that we see talking about democracy today were all born in the cradles of the army.
Pakistan due to this great threat perception transformed into a National Security State. This transformation had effects on its foreign policy to a point where interactions with the world were based on a “Give n Take” with national security and the potency of its armed forces being the primary goal. The relationship especially with the US was driven by ad hoc security concerns, with both countries needing each other.
Washington needed Pakistan to assure its defence against the Soviets in the 1980s and eliminate Osama Bin Laden/al-Qaeda in the 2000s; for Pakistan, these circumstances created an opportunity to make its relevance felt and monetise them. One of the main reasons for not cutting ties with the United States and disengaging from the War on Terror, inspite of the huge damage in terms of lives and livelihood to Pakistan itself, has been that the funds from Washington that have been useful for the Pakistan military to modernise and procure military weapons.
The same would have been a difficult task, given the abysmal condition of the country’s economy for decades. Therefore, when Pakistan deals with any of its peers from around the world, on analysis, questions must be asked to understand the implication on this, its National Security and the same “Give n Take” formula.
Taking some examples from history one is able to see it as clear as day. To begin with the creation of Pakistan itself was done with a security angle, in part of ensuring the borders of the erstwhile Soviet Union and India were kept away. Pakistan, to play the part it was made for, ensured complete alliance with the west right till and beyond the brutal end of the Soviet Afghan war and the downfall of the Soviet Union. For its effort it earned the support of the west and the weapons in aid and otherwise which it uses even today in its adventures against India.
The China – Pakistan relationship has been termed as “Higher than the Himalayas, Sweeter than Honey”, but is based on a mutual enmity with India where China tries to create a counterbalance for itself to ensure it does not have to worry about any designs India might have against it, an economical solution. The Chinese also had their own strategic designs of ensuing trade through Pakistani lands avoiding the ocean dilemma. This the “Ashrafia” in Pakistan is blissfully un-interested about, despite the resulting economic crisis as an outcome of the China Pakistan Economic Project. This combined with Pakistan having to side with China at the scorn of its erstwhile allies from the west.
Pakistani relations with the middle east have been their efforts towards adding a religious touch to its dispute with India over “Kashmir”. The collective, in the form of the OIC, gave a shoulder for Pakistan to fire, till very recently. A collection of these and many others tell a story of a country trading favours for ensuring its goal of National Security and Kashmir are kept intact.
Decoding the US Pakistan recent moves need to be done starting with the drone strike conducted by the CIA on Ayman al-Zawahiri, the de facto chief of Al Qaeda. Many now believe that the drones used Pakistani airspace and these surveillance flights continue to this day. The Americans would also be interested to bring Pakistanis towards their side to ensure distancing of Pakistan from China. The drone strike and the subsequent announcement of US$450 million for its F-16 fleet were hard to miss as a give and take transactional relationship.
The curious case was Germany where foreign Minister Baerlock’s mention of Kashmir in a joint presser with Pakistani counterpart Bhutto. Upon a little dig one realised that Pakistan holds some leverage over Germany for getting Afghans, who were associated with German Forces during the war out of Afghanistan. This is part of the $3 billion bilateral trade. While the number of Afghan immigrants to Germany is expected to be in the thousands, Berlin also wants Islamabad to not only screen but also restrict the Sunni Pashtun immigrants.
As Pakistan is willing to offer the travel channel to Germany as in the past, the German Foreign Minister’s sanctimonious Kashmir intervention is more self-serving than for the larger cause of the Valley people. Interestingly post the condemnation of this move by India the German envoy to India Philipp Ackermann said that the bilateral path is the way forward and that the world body has a very limited role to play in this matter. Ackermann emphasised that there is no change in Germany’s position on the Kashmir issue.
With Pakistan, who has very little to offer it is important to understand the return “Gift” that Pakistan would have to give to receive benevolence from its Western friends, as the reality of the Pakistani Double Cross is not lost on anyone. This is emphasised by the omission of even a mention of Pakistan in its recently released National Security Strategy by the Biden administration, the same policy that considers India a critical partner and ally in the Indo-Pacific.
A further mention of Pakistan by President Joe Biden during a Democratic Party convention calling Pakistan “one of the most dangerous nations in the world,” with its nuclear arsenal and a seemingly opaque command and control mechanism. This comes after Gen Bajwa’s remark of the army staying out of politics, a futile statement knowing what Pakistan is.
For a country that has less to offer today than in history, Pakistan is once again peddling its geo strategic location and small favours to win it big at home. To close, statements made during a presser create headlines but lines written in policies are stated intent of action on the ground. The Pakistanis are nothing but a channel for the needs of the west and would be disposable when the job is done.
Author is a geopolitical analyst at DEF Talks. You can listen to his views and read more at www.thedeftalks.com
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