PUBLISHED IN THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS on 22/10/2022
Pakistan’s removal from the FATF grey list stands as an example of a blind sided approach taken by the West to meet its own singular focused goals. Pakistan once again has traded itself to the call of duty as prescribed to it, well elucidated by the recent display of camaraderie between the United States and Pakistan. Reasons of which are hidden from plain sight. October 22, 2022
The hospitality shown by the United States towards Pakistan, right from the visit of its prime minister Shahbaz Sharif to its foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and the de facto head of state General Qamar Javed Bajwa, is been something that the Pakistanis have been craving for a while now. It Is hard to find explanations to gauge the current features of this relationship in spite of the role of Pakistan in the debacle of Afghanistan. The Pakistan US relationship has always been a transactional relationship where both countries have prime focus on their own national interest resulting in initial cohesion but fractures as time goes by.
The entire debate about the US Pakistan relations started with the announcement of the drone strike conducted in Kabul, killing the Al Qaeda chief Ayman al Zawahiri. This action quickly followed the announcement of $450 million worth of upgradation for the ageing Pakistani F-16 fleet. Further to this, it was also reported that the Pakistanis have supplied some ammunition to Ukraine as part of an effort by the US to support the latter in its war effort.
These events were added to by the name calling of Kashmir in Germany as well as the longish visit of General Bajwa to the USA and now the removal of Pakistan from the FATF grey list. FATF is rather interesting as, just a day earlier India and US made an unsuccessful effort to name a Pakistani national, Shahid Mahmood, a LeT leader, as a terrorist within the United Nations.
Many in India have started questioning the validity of the India US relations as what India saw US doing towards Pakistan in comparison to what India sees in front of it i.e. issues with visas, no assigned ambassador, the visit of the US Ambassador to Pakistan occupied Kashmir and calling it Azad Kashmir along with the delisting from the FATF grey list. One wondered what Pakistan has to give the United States apart from an opportunity to exert some pressure on India vis-a-vis its stand on the Russia Ukraine war. The popular explanation was about this pressure and the dissatisfaction of the West with India which was being clearly narrated by the western media time and time again.
Would the purpose of putting pressure on India be enough for the West to suddenly start courting Pakistan and treating it like a long lost friend?
Cost benefit ratio does not make sense. Would the west tense up a critical relationship with India by courting Pakistan knowing well the optics of the act within India.
A fair analysis of these events would need to consider all aspects of the events being reported in totality and not in isolation, a mistake a lot many are making today by trying to give a justification for events like the F-16 deal or Gen Bajwa’s visit to the US and today in all probability the event of FATF.
Foreign policy in Pakistan is an extension of its militarism as a culture of interaction with its peers around the world. This made me realise that these relations had to be connected with defence and or security of some kind. The easiest conclusion to come was that a combined effort by the United States and Pakistan to keep a track of Afghanistan and the various terror groups operating within the region.
This does make a lot of sense, as post the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, the region has become a safe haven for groups of all nature and kinds. But it seems implausible that the US would still have active interest within Afghanistan knowing well that their attention today is diverted towards Ukraine as well as Taiwan. One could also argue with the events in Iran, the US might have some interests to ensure their contacts and connections serving their interests within Iran, rather covert in nature could be ensured via Pakistan.
When one analyses all these and many other factors, the story just does not add up, the cost to the US by supporting Pakistan does not balance out in any way with the above mentioned viewpoints even if all of them are put together.
The story rather begins with an obscure report which threw light on the Pakistanis having supplied some 122 mm artillery shells to Ukraine. Ukraine has been a matter of prime focus for the West, especially the United States, who is today leaving no stone unturned in its effort to support a cause for Ukraine by rallying the world behind it.
There are a few interesting events that tell us, there might be more to the story than meets the eye. To begin, a company called DMI associates, an arms supplier located in Islamabad, has been in touch with a company called Defence Industry Group based in Bulgaria who is actively supplying weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. Separately, a Slovakia-based defence firm, Chemica has been in contact with the Pakistani Ordnance Factory’s ammunition supplier, a company called Kestral.
A European defence watch magazine recently reported the CEO of Kestral, Liaquat Ali Baig making visits to Poland, Romania and Slovakia in May, June and early July this year. The Times of Israel recently reported various flights of Royal Air Force C-17 Globemasters making trips between Romania, Slovakia and Poland to Pakistan Air Force’s Noor Khan airbase in Chaklala, Rawalpindi, since early August. Interestingly this is around the same time the chief of Army staff of Pakistan General Bajwa, made a trip to the United Kingdom.
The above points towards Pakistani involvement within the supply of ammunition for the Ukrainian war effort funded by US and its allies in the West. One still will ask a question, why Pakistan? The answer to this lies in a bit of detail where one realises that the 122 mm artillery shell is used by very few countries in the world like Ukraine, Russia, India and Pakistan to name of few. The Ukrainians are using this calibre of artillery for their old hand me down Soviet military equipment as well as some of the supply being provided to it by the West.
The supply includes Soviet made 2S1 Gvozdika self propelled howitzers that are being provided to Ukraine from April and onwards from them. These were provided to it by its neighbours namely Poland, Finland, Romania and Bulgaria who combined in their inventory have hundreds of these samples. Most of these no doubt have been brought to light from storage and war reserves from these nations having limited supply of ammunition. The Ukraine war has reportedly been an artillery war, which has required both sides to expend ammunition in a very large quantum.
Pakistan has fulfilled a need for the United States and its Western allies by supporting a war effort the west is highly committed and singularly focused towards. This country since history has been able to find a gap between geopolitical battles of superpowers and has been able to serve its own purpose of survival and relevance specially with an active seeking from the United States.
In conclusion, as the Indian external affairs Minister S Jaishankar, had said these actions don’t fool anyone. For a limited goal the West has brought to light its desperation to deal with a country that ensured an embarrassment on the world stage for the same West just a year ago and even brandished it as a victory. The long term effects on Pakistan are going to be substantial as once this supply chain dries out, Pakistan will find itself again on the receiving end. This is the story of Pakistan since its creation and we must not be surprised.
Author is a Geopolitical Analyst at DEF Talks. You can read his writings and hear him speak at www.thedeftalks.com.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.